Today is: Sunday, 7th September 2008
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USD gains further and metals continue to melt down - where is resistance to this move?
No big data catalysts today, but volatility may nonetheless continue to shake the market.
Market Comments
Metal prices picked up fresh momentum to the downside overnight, with silver off as much as an amazing 3 dollars from the previous day’s highs. The USD also saw a fresh wave of strength. There don’t seem to
15 Aug 08 | Read onUSD Strength Across the Board
Almost all major resistance levels taken out in the USD-crosses. But negative Citigroup and Merrill Lynch news might weigh heavily on stocks.
- Euro has sank to a 5-month low against the dollar as Trichet’s comments regarding weak growth estimates have caused the markets to reduce bets on future rate increases by the European Central
08 Aug 08 | Read on
USD Index takes a peek above 200-day moving average for the first time since early 2007 ahead of ECB BOE
Neither central bank expected to move on rates - Trichet press conference the focus there. New Chinese capital controls could have important bearing on the USD.
The key for today’s ECB meeting is watching how president Trichet follows up on the last meeting’s shift to a “no bias” stance. It’s probably too early to expect the ever-vigilant president of the ECB to signal a rate
07 Aug 08 | Read onChina to use interest rates to steer economy -C Bank
China will use a variety of tools to stabilize economic growth, including using interest rates to steer the economy, the People’s Bank of China said in a summary of its second-quarter policy meeting.
The statement did not explicitly mention tightening monetary policy; instead it pledged to keep monetary policy ‘consistent’.
‘Unfavourable factors in the international economy and serious natural disasters at home have added to uncertainty, but have not changed the fundamentals of China’s economic development,’ it said in a statement posted on its website (www.pbc.gov.cn) on Sunday.
28 Jul 08 | Read onThin Calendar Today, but Financials Should Still be Under Pressure
With the news from ANZ and renewed focus at Financials, they should continue to underperform.
- Following Friday’s news of National Australia Bank selling off heaviest since September 2001 on credit concerns, this time around Australia & New Zealand Banking Group has forecast the biggest full-year profit drop since 1992, once again highlighting the widespread nature of credit-driven losses.
- Despite the slump in financial shares after ANZ Banking Group news, most Asian stocks have
28 Jul 08 | Read on
Japanese govt bonds close down on Nikkei gains, but off lows on auction
Japanese government bond prices closed lower on Thursday following declines in U.S. Treasury prices and the Nikkei’s gains but favourable results at the auction of 30-year debt helped trim losses.
The lowest accepted price at the auction of 600 billion worth of 30-year bonds was 100.85 yen with the yield of 2.450 percent. The tail, or the difference between the lowest accepted price and the average bid, was 0.11 yen, the same as the previous auction.
18 Jul 08 | Read onUSD-crosses close to major break-outs!
1.5842 in EURUSD is key. AUDUSD also about to make new highs.
Markets
- FX: USD lower still. Key resistance in EURUSD at 1.5842. CAD looks really weak.
- Fixed Income: Lower across the board. STIR Futures: 46% chance of a 25 bps. rate hike at the 5th Aug.
- Equities: European session lower by 2%. US moderately higher. Nikkei down by 1.5%
- Commodities: Energies still edging higher. Precious metals are strong and could break higher still.
02 Jul 08 | Read onAnother wave of USD and Stocks Selling
Key Support levels in danger for both stock indices and the USD. Crude Oil and Precious metals benefitting from the USD weakness.
Markets
- FX: A wave of forcefull USD selling with no obvious trigger. Europeans currencies strong.
- Fixed Income: 10-year contracts in strong rallies. Especially JGB’s.
- Equities: Quite big and broadbased sell-off in all regions. Key support levels endangered.
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28 Jun 08 | Read on
Record retail sales shocker triggers massive GBP short squeeze. SNB decision to leave rates unchanged sends CHF tumbling.
USD continues to trade in no-man’s land. Which way for USDCAD - renewed rally or more range trading?
We’re running out of anything interesting to say on the short term view on the market as many currency pairs can’t seem to shake off the ranges. Bond market yields remain the dominant macro story and keep
20 Jun 08 | Read onStocks edging higher, defying bad data… S&P500 1406 is key today.
General signs of risk willingness. Carry Trades and USD strengthening.
- FX: Carry trade formation looks strong on Monday with both NZD and AUD ending two days of losses
28 Apr 08 | Read on